Statistical Demographer
Estimating demography hidden today, forecasting tomorrow's populations
Hi! I'm Julie Sojin Kim, a statistical demographer working on population forecasting and demographic methods — building Bayesian small-area models of fertility, mortality, and migration to surface the inequities that national averages hide.
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Global total fertility rate, 1950–2100 (stylized, after GBD 2021 Fertility Forecasting)
Research interests
Substantive
Demography, population forecasting, population health metrics, and health inequity — with a focus on how these play out across geography, education, race, and ethnicity, and how climate change reshapes them.
Methods
Demographic methods, Bayesian hierarchical modeling, small-area estimation, survey design and analysis, and time-series forecasting.
Research experience
full statement on the Research pageI'm a statistical demographer specializing in population forecasting and demographic methods, completing my PhD in Health Metrics Sciences at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), where I worked on the Future Health Scenarios and US Health Disparities team with Stein Emil Vollset and Laura Dwyer-Lindgren.
My dissertation developed a Bayesian approach for estimating subnational fertility, mortality, and migration across social and geographic dimensions, combining survey and administrative data. I hold a Certificate in Demographic Methods.
The two sides of my work inform each other directly: the small-area estimation methods I build to reveal subnational inequities also sharpen the covariates behind IHME's global fertility and migration forecasts — and the forecasts, in turn, show me where finer-grained subnational estimation is needed most.
I've also been selected for two competitive international research residencies for early-career demographers: the MPIDR Summer Incubator Program at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, and the Young Scientists Summer Program (YSSP) at IIASA.
Selected research
full list on the Publications pagePublication · Core author
Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021 with forecasts to 2100
A comprehensive demographic analysis and forecast for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. GBD 2021 Fertility and Forecasting Collaborators. The Lancet, 403(10440), 2057–2099.
PubMedPublication · Core author
Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050
A forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. GBD 2021 Forecasting Collaborators. The Lancet, 403(10440), 2204–2256.
PubMedPublication
Estimating the Burden of Child Undernutrition for Smaller Electoral Units in India
Kim, J.*, Liu, Y., Wang, W., et al. JAMA Network Open, 4(10), e2129416.
PubMedIn progress
Uncovering racial-ethnic disparities of interstate migration in the US in the 21st century
Best Poster Award, Wittgenstein Centre Conference on Demographic Perspectives on Migration, 2025.
Education
full CV on the CV page-
2021 – 2026
PhD, Global Health – Health Metrics Sciences
University of Washington / IHME · Certificate in Demographic Methods
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2018 – 2020
MS, Global Health and Population
Harvard University
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2013 – 2018
BS, Nursing (minor, Healthcare Management, Wharton School)
University of Pennsylvania